What It Means
- The Department of Energy certified that Dubai crude averaged $99.41 per barrel from August 13 to September 11, clearing the legal threshold for a fuel excise tax suspension.
- The Development Budget Coordination Committee is finalizing a recommendation limited to LPG and kerosene, the same two products covered in April.
- Diesel and gasoline remain outside the proposed suspension even as both posted the steepest pump price hikes in recent weeks.
- Logistics fleets, trucking operators, and diesel dependent public transport absorb the full excise cost with no relief attached.
- The repeat exclusion treats diesel and gasoline as fixed revenue lines the government will not touch, regardless of how sharp the price shock gets.
The Department of Energy has certified that Dubai crude oil averaged $99.41 per barrel over the one month period ending September 11, well above the $80 threshold set under Republic Act 12316. That certification opens the door to another fuel excise tax suspension, the second this year. The Department of Finance has already told the Development Budget Coordination Committee that it intends to recommend the same scope it used in April, a full suspension on LPG and kerosene only. Diesel and gasoline, the two fuels driving the sharpest recent pump price increases, sit outside that proposal, a structural gap that has surfaced before in how fuel excise relief gets applied.
The Fuel Excise Tax Suspension Repeats Its April Scope
Republic Act 12316 sets a mechanical test, not a policy choice. Once the Department of Energy certifies that the one month average price of Dubai crude, based on the Mean of Platts Singapore, reaches or exceeds $80 per barrel, the law opens a window for the president to act on the recommendation of the Development Budget Coordination Committee, in coordination with the Department of Energy. The trigger forces a review. It does not force a fuel excise tax suspension on any specific product.
That distinction matters because the Department of Finance made its product choice before the committee finished evaluating. Finance Secretary Frederick Go told reporters the department is prepared to recommend a 100 percent suspension on LPG and kerosene, the identical scope used in April’s Executive Order 114. Nothing in the current statements from DOF or DOE suggests diesel or gasoline are under consideration this cycle either.
Diesel And Gasoline Stay Outside The Relief
Pump prices tell a different story than the proposed relief does. Over two straight weeks, cumulative hikes reached P10.37 per liter for gasoline and P9.49 for diesel. For the week of September 15 to 21 alone, gasoline rose by up to P5.68 per liter and diesel by P4.31, both larger single week moves than kerosene’s P4.62 increase over the same stretch. The products absorbing the steepest cost pressure are the ones a fuel excise tax suspension would not touch under the current proposal.
April 2026 vs. September 2026 activation cycles:
| April 2026 | September 2026 | |
|---|---|---|
| Trigger price | $93.71 per barrel | $99.41 per barrel |
| Products covered | LPG, kerosene | LPG, kerosene (proposed) |
| Products excluded | Diesel, gasoline | Diesel, gasoline |
| Duration | 3 months, reverted in July | Pending DBCC recommendation |
April Set The Pattern For September
The April cycle is the template this cycle is following. Executive Order 114 suspended excise on LPG and kerosene for three months, cut cooking gas costs by roughly P37 per tank, and reverted automatically in July once Dubai crude fell to $79.45 per barrel, back below the statutory trigger. Diesel and gasoline were never part of that order despite carrying the largest share of both consumer and business fuel spending. A single cycle could pass as a narrow intervention aimed at household cooking costs. A second fuel excise tax suspension, built on the same product list under a sharper price spike, reads as a standing boundary. The Department of Finance had the option to widen the scope this time and chose not to propose it.
Diesel Dependent Operators Carry The Unhedged Cost
Trucking fleets, delivery platforms, and diesel powered public transport, including provincial buses and UV Express routes, cannot pass fuel cost increases through as quickly as retail pump prices move. Freight rates and fares require renegotiation or regulatory approval, while diesel costs move weekly. These operators built cost assumptions around the possibility that a second fuel excise tax suspension might finally extend to diesel, given how much sharper this year’s price increases have been compared to April’s trigger event. The Department of Finance’s stated position closes that possibility for this cycle.
Government fuel subsidy programs soften part of the impact for public transport, with over P718 million already disbursed to more than 102,000 beneficiaries through partner fuel stations. That support runs through a separate subsidy channel, not the excise tax structure itself, and does not extend to private logistics fleets or delivery operators outside the public transport subsidy list.
Two Cycles Confirm A Fixed Revenue Line
Diesel and gasoline excise collections fund a larger share of government revenue than LPG and kerosene combined. Two consecutive rounds of fuel excise tax suspension, both limited to the smaller revenue category, indicate this is a deliberate boundary rather than an oversight the government will eventually correct. The Department of Energy has the authority to monitor prices, and the Development Budget Coordination Committee has the authority to widen the relief. Neither has moved toward diesel or gasoline in two attempts.
Diesel Stays Exposed Through Two Cycles
Diesel and gasoline have now gone through two price shocks and two rounds of a fuel excise tax suspension without qualifying for either. The government has shown, twice, which fuels get protected when the trigger fires and which ones do not. Logistics operators and diesel dependent transport fleets carry the excise cost that LPG and kerosene users do not, and nothing in the current proposal changes that arrangement going into a third possible cycle.
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